Matching up: a Roquan Smith Case Study
The Deep Dive
In the modern NFL, linebackers are under attack. Their performance is increasingly dictated by the opposing offense. Roquan Smith, considered by many as one of the league's elite linebackers, has demonstrated just how much offensive dynamics matter. His 2024 season showcases a tale of contrasting performances and defensive vulnerability against high-powered offenses of today’s NFL.
Smith has shown flashes of brilliance, as evidenced by his current ranking as the 18th-best run-defending linebacker in the NFL. Against teams like the Raiders (69.3 PFF grade), Cowboys (66.0), and Bengals (83.1), Smith’s ability to control the middle of the field is evident. In these games, the opposing offenses were less mobile and less versatile, which allowed Smith to focus on his core strengths—dissecting plays and reacting in traffic.
However, Smith's struggles become apparent when facing high-flying offenses with mobile quarterbacks and multifaceted schemes. Against teams like the Chiefs, Bills, and Commanders, Smith posted disappointing PFF game grades of 29.4, 45.4, and 43.2 - maddening All-22 managers in the process. These teams consistently put Smith in conflict—forcing him into untenable conflicts with no “right” answer.
One major factor behind these struggles is his increased involvement in coverage. No longer with his previous wingman Patrick Queen, Smith is averaging a target every 8.6 snaps in coverage – a stark contrast to the 14.0 snaps per target he averaged in 2023. This jump reflects the heightened pressure offenses are putting on linebackers like Smith, stretching them thin with short passes, mobile quarterbacks, and quick decisions that leave little margin for error. Elite offenses, particularly those with fast tempo or dual-threat quarterbacks, make linebackers like Smith the focal point of their attacks, knowing how difficult it is to maintain discipline and coverage integrity under such duress.
Despite this, Smith’s value remains evident. His highs illustrate that he can still control games when allowed to play downhill and attack the line of scrimmage. But in an NFL where offensive masterminds are designing complex, multi-read schemes, even top linebackers are subject to the whims of these mad scientists.
What to do?
Roquan Smith tells the story of the NFL linebacker in 2024. His increased coverage responsibilities and fluctuating grades highlight the need to consider matchups carefully every week. While Smith remains a top-tier linebacker, his impact as a defender is becoming increasingly matchup-specific as offenses find new ways to target and stretch 2nd-level defenders like him. For All-22 managers, careful attention to weekly matchups is a must - even for household names like Roquan Smith.
